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3 Nov 2011: Thailand flooding impact

The flooding has continued moving down through Thailand, with a huge water mass entering the west of Bangkok this week. Neverless, the end is seemingly in sight with water level 200km north of Bangkok having fallen dramatically. There are even signs that the water levels much closer to Bangkok have started to ease, and are expected to peak in the coming days. Many industrial parks are completely inundated, with company telling their employees to not return to work until December.

Mills have been unable to function, with even those on higher ground not receiving any rice to process. Thai export price has been steady, nothing has been able to move. However price increased were seen last weekend, following a fall in the value of Thai Baht against the US dollar.

There has been significant damage to paddy, but the destruction is limited to mainly white and Pathum-Thani rice varieties, not affecting the Fragrant (Jasmine Rice) and Glutinous rice.

Although no final figure can be confirmed as to the extent of the damage until the water has completely subsided, report are suggesting that between 3 million and 7 million metric ton of paddy have been destroyed.

 

Vietnam : Vietnamese market has once again been quiet this week, although price quoted have eased slightly they are still high and little business has been negotiated, there is unlikely to be much change in price until a small crop arrived at the end of Nov or early Dec.

 

Pakistan : There are worries for farmer within Pakistan who have seen the overall cost of rice production increase during the last few months.

 

India : Quoted price increased very slightly as the value of the Rupee improve against the dollar. The harvest is gathering pace with increasing fresh paddy but exporters are nervous about pricing the rice from this region before the decision about the bonus to be paid to farmers.

 

27 Oct. 2011: New crop 2012 already launch for Jasmine Rice and Glutinous Rice.

 

Floods Ruining 14% of Thai Rice may erase Global Export Glut : Thailand’s worst floods in more than a half century may have wiped out as much as 14 percent of paddy fields in the world’s biggest rice exporter, potentially erasing the predicted global.  

Export Price : Thailand’s export price jumped 12 percent to $622 a ton this year as wheat tumbled 19 percent in Chicago and soybeans fell 12 percent. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Agriculture gauge of eight commodities retreated 11 percent, while the MSCI All- Country World Index of equities dropped 8 percent. Treasuries returned 8.1 percent, Bank of America Corp. indexes show. Rice on the Chicago Board of Trade jumped 12 percent since Oct.  

Profitable Crop : Flooding has damaged 13 percent of crop areas in Thailand, 6 percent in the Philippines, 12 percent in Cambodia and 7.5 percent in Laos, according to the UN Food & Agriculture Organization. This has “potentially bullish ramifications” for prices, which may put pressure on inflation, Deutsche Bank AG said on Oct. 24.  Production in South America may decline as much as 15 percent from a year earlier as the so-called La Nina weather pattern cuts rainfall and farmers shift to more profitable crops including soybeans, Bruno Lanfranco, a senior researcher at the National Agriculture Research Institute in Uruguay, said Oct. 21. La Nina is a period of cooling equatorial waters in the Pacific Ocean that can mean dry weather in parts of the Americas.

Rising Demand :  Equity and commodity markets slumped since May amid slowing growth and Europe’s debt crisis. Demand for rice is unlikely to weaken. Consumption has increased every year since 2006, including during the worst global recession since World War II.  

Fewer farmer than hoped for have joined the government's rice-subsidy scheme, pledging only 62,000 tonnes since it started on 7-Oct :  "The rice volume is lower than expected, largely because of the severe flooding. The government has promised to buy Hom Mali fragrant rice for Bt20,000 per tonne, ordinary fragrant rice for Bt18,000 per tonne, long-grain and sticky rice for Bt16,000 and 100-per-cent short-grain and sticky rice for Bt15,000. The government will put in place a policy encouraging farmers in the flood-hit areas to plant only two crops a year instead of three. That would minimise losses from severe floods.

 

16 Sept. 2011

Thailand Rice news

- Thai Government rice mortgage scheme is set to start on 7-Oct, price are already increasing ahead of the scheme being implemented.

- The Thai government will purchase regular White rice paddy at Baht 15,000/tonne and Hom Mali fragrant paddy at Baht 20,000/tonne, expect that Glutinous paddy will be puchased at a level somewhere between Baht 16,000/tonne and Baht 18,000/tonne for Pathum Thani fragrant paddy garantee price to be set as well.

- The volume of rice that can be mortgage remain unclear as Government has not yet set a limit.

- The result of this new rice policy means that rice price willd be around White Rice USD800-850/tonne and Hom Mali Fragrant Rice USD1,400-1,450/tonnes basis FOB Bangkok

- This week, Thailand rice seller both Hom Mali fragrant rice and Pathum Thani fragrant rice raised many of their asking price while White Rice keep mostly price quoted unchanged.

 

 Global Rice news

- Vietnamese exporters had started to increase their price after the Thai Government announced mortgage scheme

- Indian, finally a decision of export 2 million tonnes has been made, the schedule 7-Sep hearing for the allocation of rice export licenses was cancelled due to a bombing outside the Delhi High Court. However India's group of Empowered ministers came together on the 8-Sep and approved the export of 2 million tonnes of non-Basmati rice under open general license.

- Cambodia, a delegation from rice Dubai 2011 will travel to Cambodia this week to explore the positive impacts it could bring on the export and re-export market from U.A.E to the rest of the world by entering into it. The U.A.E is already the world largest re-exporter of rice. The deligation from Dubai will spur an increase Cambodian rice export to go through its re-export hub.

 

 

'Senile' coconut trees threaten Philippines exports ( 9 Sept. 2011)

Millions of Philippine coconut farmers face a growing crisis in their livelihoods, an official said Tuesday, as their trees become too old to produce the fruit that is a mainstay of the country's exports.

Coconut trees line the beach in the town of Morong, Bataan province, northern Philippines. Millions of Philippine coconut farmers face a growing crisis in their livelihoods, as their trees become too old to produce the fruit that is a mainstay of the country's exports.

More than 44 million coconut trees -- 14 percent of the national total -- are past their most fertile age, and without a sufficient replanting programme the industry could be in trouble, warned Euclides Forbes, administrator of the official Philippine Coconut Authority.

He said the government does not have enough money to support the industry, on which 25 percent of the population depends, and private planters are not doing enough.

"If the trees are not replaced, the fall in our coconut production will accelerate. In three to five years, we will not be able to meet export demand," he told AFP.

He did not say why farmers are not planting new coconuts on their own, but in the past they relied on government incentives to boost production.

Coconut products like dried coconut meat and coconut oil are the Philippines' largest agricultural exports, earning $1.508 billion dollars for the country last year, official figures show.

Coconut Authority figures show production in 2011 is expected to hit only 2.57 million tonnes, down more than 13 percent on 2010 while coconut oil exports will amount to only 1.5 billion tonnes, down 30 percent on the year earlier.

Forbes did not say how much the ageing coconut trees had cost the country but said the decline in production and exports this year could be traced directly to the old trees.

He warned the shortfall could force consumers to switch to alternatives like palm oil.

The Philippines has three million coconut farmers, but 25 million Filipinos -- more than one in four people -- are dependent on the industry, he said.

Coconut trees are considered mature when they are seven to 25 years old and typically bear 40-65 fruit per year, Forbes said.

He said many of the ageing trees are more than 60 years old and produce only 10 fruit a year and sometimes none at all, making them "senile".

The government is to spend 220 million pesos ($5.2 million) planting new trees next year, but this represents less than 10 percent of the old trees, Forbes warned.

 
15 July 2011:
 

PINEAPPLE

Finally, the first half whistle has blown already. Many factories is shuting down for annual maintenance from now until next September. As a result, price will be gradually higher week by week and will peak during next 2 months. Thus this month or maybe this week is the last chance get a good price before next winter crop. Some popular product maybe finished in next 1-2 weeks because of the smart buyer who has a good experience and vision will take a stock before the price will going to extreme level. 

 

For the next crop, I hope it will be start earlier than last year (Mid-Octorber). I try to collect any information from many farm and found that the next crop will start around Mid-September. However, it is depend on many factors that we can't predict accurately.

 

SWEET CORN

This is also famous in this time because raw material price will increasing after September for sure. Not only the reason of low season of sweet corn that make the price higher, Tin-Plate price will also adjust higher again on after this month. Thus you have no doubt that July and August is the last chance to buy a good price of canned sweet corn in this year. Otherwise, you have to wait till next crop in 2012 

  

FYI.... from my experience, price will be better again in next summer (March-June 2012).

 

SEASONAL FRUITS

Lychee - This is also last time to buy this item. Crop will finish at the end of this month (normally it should finish since June but this year crop is delay for one month). As my previous update, this year a crop of Lychee is really bad. Price is increasing a lot from last year. Thus if you still keep waiting and finding for a good price, please beware to miss a last chance to buy it in this year. 

 

Longan - This year crop has started already and will be peak on August. However, if you have any demand for this item, please kindly contact our sale representative immediately because this is not a good year for agriculture product. You may miss a chance to buy because of a popular reason of seasonal fruit, FULL BOOKING!!!

 

Mango - Finally a crop has finished already. Therefore, if you have any demand for its, please ask our sale representative. We still have enough stock to supply you with seasonal price.

 

Rambutan- I can't say anything too much about this because of uncertainly output of raw material. In each area has produced different way. Once some area has a good output, they still face another problem that is a labour unit. Many packers have not enough labour to produce (peel) a rambutan. That's a little point but affect a quantity of supply very much.  

 

For a rambutan with pineapple stuff, please forget it for this year because of above reason and also pineapple crop has finished already.

 

TUNA

Fluctuation of catching in Western Pacific is obviously seen. It was 12 MT a week before, while recent figure shows 34 MT per day per boat. For US, Taiwanese and Korean fleets is improving as well from 10-20 MT per day per boat. 

 

The percentage of Yellowfin mixed in Western Pacific is maintaining at the rate of 11-12% after it went to 4% last two weeks. The Indian Ocean is maintaining at 15%. USD 3200++ is the offer price at the moment which does not guarantee the quantity.

Supply of Albacore may have a chance to see an improvement in July. For the price, It is soften down a little bid to USD 3,400/ MT. Summer Albacore is a hope for a lower price but we have to wait and see the supply again.

Tongol is now on off-season mode while the demand is still high. Price is a little bit up toTHB 58/ KG. This is because it substitutes to yellowfin at the moment.

 

FYI... The price of the tin will increase again after August (but some tuna tin supplier will increase next month). Therefore, if you have any demand during this time, I think I can offer you lower than other giant company because we still have enough of fish. Just let our sale representative know.

 

RICE

Still doubtful about price in this time. A new Thai government has changed some policy which may affect a price of rice a lot. The price in market is still high and swing during and after Thai Election last week. Today a paddy price is around THB 9,100-9,300/ mt for Thai White Rice and THB 14,500-14,900/mt for Thai Hom Mali Rice (Jasmine Rice)

 

From last week (04/07/2011), the price of Thai White Rice 5% broken was around THB 14,000-14,300/ mt but today (14/07/2011) is around THB 14,500-14,800/ mt that mean it has increased around THB 500-800/ mt from last week.

 

Furthermore, the price of Thai Hom Mali Rice (B Grade) rice is also increasing around THB 2,000-2,500/ mt. Last week price was around THB 27,000-27,500/ mt but today price is around THB 29,000-29,500/ mt

 

Same as the price of Thai Parboiled Rice 100%, from last week was around THB 14,500-14,700/ mt but today price is around THB 15,200-15,500/ mt.

 

As a price's trend, you can see that it seem keep increasing. The ceritfied paddy price policy from new government, THB 15,000/ mt for Thai White Rice and THB 20,000/ mt for Thai Hom Mali,  is a main cause for this matter. If you compare with present price, you can understand that why everyone try to keep a stock in this time and waiting for this policy activate. That is the reason that why Thai rice price is increasing even this policy has not applied yet. Now everyone is waiting and seeing for the conclusion from new government.

 

In my opinion, I think the price will increases a lot for sure but how much and when ???.... Thus if you realize to this news, I think this is the best time to buy Thai Rice because we will never know what is going on in this Thai government era.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
5 Juli 2011: Thai Rice situation:
 

Sorry, for this week we stop to offer any rice prices from Thailand  due to the political uncertainty.

Thai Rice market is now "frozen", caused by the possibility a new Thai government based on the Pheu Thai party might revive the rice mortgage policy as promised in their election program. This could jack up prices too high for the present market prices.

 

RE : Rice Trader await clarity on new government policy

Now exporters have stopped taking order from International buyers as they are afraid of losing a lot of money. All waiting to see the details of implementation guideline of the rice mortgage policy under the new government, so Thai rice exports certainly be reduced over the next 2-3 months. Export price will probably rise 10% in a month when the price-pledging scheme is implemented, it might lift the price further till a rally 56% by year-end.

 

1).http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/economics/245473/rice-traders-await-clarity-on-pt-policy

Rice trader await clarity on new government polilcy (published 5-July-2011)

The rice market is frozen as traders worry that the revival of the rice mortgage policy by the new Pheu Thai-led government could jack up prices of white rice in the global market to as much as US$850 a tonne.

Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, said millers had stopped buying paddy and were adopting a "wait and see" stance as they monitor price trends.

At the same time, exporters have stopped taking orders from international buyers, especially for shipments to be delivered in August and September, as they are afraid of losing money.

"All parties are waiting to see the details of implementation guideline of the rice mortgage policy under the new government. So Thai rice exports will certainly be reduced over the next two to three months," he said.

The Pheu Thai policy to reinstate mortgaging by purchasing paddy into government stocks at 15,000 baht a tonne ($488) would increase the FOB price of white rice by $330 a tonne.

"The current price of 5% white rice is $520 a tonne so the new price will be $850 immediately. This jump in price, instead of a gradual rise, would be difficult for buyers to accept," said Mr Chookiat.

A survey by Bloomberg News indicated that rice prices in Thailand may rally 56% by year-end to $810 a tonne.

"It isn't only Thai prices that will go up, the rest of the world will have to follow," the agency quoted Mamadou Ciss, CEO of Geneva-based Hermes Investments Pte, as saying.

"The price may jump $100 a tonne within two months and peak at $700," said Mr Ciss, who correctly predicted in 2006 that prices would double.

Export prices will probably rise 10% in a month, said Wichai Srinawakul, vice-president of the Thai Rice Mills Association. When the price-pledging scheme is implemented, it will lift the price further, probably to $830 per tonne by the end of this year.

With higher rice prices foreseen, Mr Chookiat is concerned that buyers might turn to other countries, especially arch-rival Vietnam, or they might be more self-sufficient countries.

He urged the new government to make sure it does not repeat the mistakes made under earlier rice mortgage programmes, which were widely criticised as corrupt. For example, farmers had to pay certain sums to participate in the scheme while politicians sought benefits from rice millers and exporters.

As well, governments ran up large losses for storing rice for months or even years in the hope that export prices would rise. In the end, most of the rice was sold for less than the government had paid originally.

Mr Chookiat also said the government needed to ensure that cheaper paddy from neighbouring countries is not smuggled into Thailand to take advantage of high pledging prices.

"The private sector still sees no solutions to the problems because these are endless issues," he noted.

Thailand exports approximately one million tonnes of rice a month. But the projection for July is 700,000 to 800,000 tonnes as exporters still have orders in hand.

The projection has been reduced to 500,000 tonnes in the next two months. Overall exports for this year may be around 10 million tonnes, instead of 11 million.

The Democrat-led government replaced the mortgage scheme with an insurance programme under which farmers were compensated directly if their selling prices were below agreed benchmarks set every two weeks.

The most recent benchmark price for 5% white rice was about 11,000 baht a tonne.

2)http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/2011/07/05/business/Rice-trade-halts-ahead-of-pledging-scheme-30159478.html

Rice trade halts ahead of pledging scheme (published 5-July-2011) 

As a quick response to the Pheu Thai Party's promise to restore the ri ce-price pledging scheme, domestiv rice trading has ground to a halt, as millers are keeping their supplier off the market on speculation that prices will shoot up.

Chookiat Ophaswongse, honourable president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, said the suspension of sales by rice millers had also created problems for exporters, which cannot quote prices and must also stop selling rice.

"If the pledging scheme is resumed, it will mark up export prices of white rice from the present US$550 to more than $850 a tonne. Exporters can't calculate the real cost of rice, as they don't know when it will be restarted," he said.

If the pledging scheme starts soon, millers will not sell rice to exporters because they can get a higher return from the higher pledged price by selling directly to the government under the programme.

Paddy white rice is currently quoted at Bt9,000-Bt9,500 a tonne, but under the pledging scheme, the pledged price would be Bt15,000 per tonne.

This means the export price of this type of rice would soar to $850 (about Bt26,000) a tonne, compared with Vietnamese rice at $450-$500.

If Thai rice prices are too high, it will also create difficulty for Thai rice exports.

The new government should delay the pledging scheme to let the market adjust, Chookiat said. Foreign buyers could panic at the skyrocketing price of Thai rice and shift to ordering from Vietnam and other countries.

After Thailand exported large volumes of rice during the first half of this year, shipments could drop from an average of 1 million tonnes a month to 200,000-300,000 a month, he added.

Charnchai Ratthananon, president of the Thai Rice Mills Association, said the rice price would be on the rise now that the market acknowledges that Pheu Thai has won the election.

"Foreign traders will rush to stock up on rice, as the pledging scheme will push prices up.

"Rice traders will have no urgent reason to release rice stocks, as rice prices will gradually rise," he said.

The new government will likely reinstate the pledging scheme this November for the main crop, Charnchai said.

Prasith Boonchuey, president of the Thai Rice Farmers Association, does not believe the scheme will cover every farmer. The new government cannot purchase every rice grain from farmers for warehousing. The pledging benefit will fall to a small group of farmers.

The pledging policy will not create any sustainable benefit for Thai farmers, while the credit cards promised for farmers will spoil them into overspending, he said.

The new government should find a new, sustainable policy to help farmers in the long run, Prasith said.

 

15 June 2011

 

Pineapple

The summer crop come through the end of season period already. Everyone expect the price should be drop at this time including myself. Unlucky, it is not the truth, even though the cost of fruit raw material drop to THB5.50-5.70/kg or about 18-20%, if compare last 2-3months it was about THB6.00 up to nearly THB7.00/kg.

The major reason of price remain the same level, it is may cause of all cannery in Thailand  get tightness order on hand.

 

Currently the pineapple fruit from south and east part of Thailand begin less 30-40% if compare last 2weeks ago. Regularly the working time is 8hours and additional overtime 3hours in some days. Some week the cannery continue working time on Sunday too because of the excess of fruit input, but nowadays the production plant are running only half day.

 

After survey the field and discussed with the farmer , this summer crop going be finished by the end of June or have some chance delay to the 2nd week of July. After that all cannery will shut down for one - one and half month. However, the god seem give us some luck because the new winter crop will be able to harvest faster than every year, we predict that it will come by end of Aug.  "Hopefully we get plenty of pineapple fruit in winter crop this year and price is competitive as well"

 

 

Ref. Sweet corn.

 

France + Hungary : It is seriously short supply of corn since beg of this year 2011 until now. Hopeless to expect sweet corn form them. They are now buying from Thailand.

 

China : As they are our most significant competitor, now it seem Chinese Corn get the problem for export to worldwide market because

1.) The government revoke the tax refund to exporter.

2.) All exporter have to pay export tax of 3-15% , the tax depends on the  catagory of products.

3.) As you know China is huge country, now the production  is not enough for domestic consumption . So, thjis has a direct effect on export.

4.) The labour cost in China is not cheap anymore as in the past.

 

USA : Sweet corn plant in US is reduced because of it is not profitable for farmer. Also US Government subsidize the farmer to grow the oil plant such as PALM and else for Fuel Purpose, therefore please do not expect to get sweet corn from USA. They are now buying from Thailand

 

Thai SupplyAt the moment ,It is summer crop (peak season), it is the best time to buy sweet corn from Thailand . Nowadays the cost of sweet corn raw material is averageTHB4.80-5.00/kg. We forecast that we will have the plenty of corn supply from now on until September and the supply will drop during Q4/2011 until beg of next year 2012, the cost of corn raw material forecast about THB5.20-5.50/kgs at that time , therefore we do highly recommend all buyer start to purchase sweet corn before the shortage period in Q4 as every being , if you can recognize.

 

 

Ref. Tuna

3 MT per day per boat is an improving catching rate in Western Pacific for last week from 30 MT per day per boat in a week before last week.  You will see that these 3 MT increased cannot say that catching is back,
US, Taiwanese and Korean as well as US boat has been staying at 20 MT per day per boat for past 4 weeks.  It is hard to forecast the supply at the moment.  

A steady declining of Indian Ocean's catching is still on.  5 MT falling from a week before last week makes last week catching rate touch the level of 10 MT per day per boat (from 20 to 25 and now 10 MT).  This is Poor catching.

Skipjack price in Thailand is now touching the level of USD 1900 up.  The trend is still upward trend as demand is still high while the supply from fish broker is unpredictable.  USD 2000 per MT is what the market speaking but there no one can confirm if it will come or when it will come.  By the tendency, it is possible to see it during FAD ban.

The yellowfin mixed in Western Pacific does not show any good sign.  There is unchanged.  5% is in Western Pacific while Indian Pacific is still at 25% (but overall catching is Poor).  All in all, there is no good sign for yellowfin supply.  USD 2900 is the minimum as a market price at the moment with small quantity supplied (i.e. 30 to 60 MT).

Supply of Albacore is still dim.  USD 3550 is in the market but without quantity guarantee.  This is same situation as yellowfin.

It seem Tongol is the only tuna which price is quite stable above THB 54 per kg. From the severe situation of skipjack yellowfin and albacore, it leads packers to fight more to get tongol in their production.  Thus, we cannot be rest on tongol price and supply during its season is becoming off.

Ref. Thai Rice

The reason why the price is quite high because by now it �s lack of raw material in market, all thai rice exporters are waiting for new harvest around August. So, this is one of factors that make the price is quite high but not only raw material price is high but the freight rate is higher than last time too.

As you know, Thailand will have new political election next month that mean we have to wait and see which party can be government and what they want to help farmer to guarantee the rice price for them. So, I trust that the price is going up �MAYBE!!!  

 
23 May 2011
 
PINEAPPLE
It seem the crop situation is getting better in this time. The price of raw material is going down and today we can find the price around THB 5.60 - THB 5.80/ kg with 9000mt for the whole country. That's really good news for both buyer and seller. Our expectation, the crop should be remain the same until at the end of June 2011 and then the supply will slow down.
As a result, you can find the good price of pineapple pieces in this time because many packer have many stock for supply. However, for the slices one, the price still remain the same because of many pending order still need to full fill from lately poor crop situation.
 
SWEET CORN
Not much different from last month. we still have a raw material in the northern part of Thailand but not a lot because of rainning. The quantity and price of raw material in this area is around 150-200mt per day with price THB 4.50/ kg but next month we expect to get around 400mt per day.
On the other hand, raw material in the central part area has finished since last 2 months. A new crop in this area will be around early June. The present situation of raw material and price for this area is less than 50mt per day at THB 5.00/ kg.

Lastly, sweet corn crop in northeast of Thailand is also start from next month as well.
 
SEASONAL FRUITS
Lychee - Once again for this year that the crop of Lychee is really not good. A raw material is not much as we expected before. Many packers in Thailand still keep quiet and not willing to quote the price in this time because the raw material remain unstable.
For the customer who are looking for a broken lychee, I can guarantee that you will face a big problem to find because this year the output is very few thus all farmers will wait to get a big size of fruit in order to get a better price.
Longan - Normally a new crop should start from early July and we forecast that the crop may not good as same as Lychee. And also many packer anticipate that the crop may delay till at the end of July or early August. Therefore, for customer who are looking for this, please kindly look after the situation carefully because a period of crop and quantity may considered as main threat.
Mango - In term of quantity, this year we have a very good crop of mango. We can get more quantity than previous year because of good weather. However, even the crop is get better than last year but price of raw material is more expensive than the past. Last year, the price of raw material was around THB 3.00-5.00/ kg. but this year is around THB 10.00/ kg. Surely the question is why? the answer is an extreamly high demand in fresh market (normally a farmer prefer to sell in this market because they will get a good price and profit). As a result, the factory should pay more to get a raw material that is a reason of price.
Rambutan- Still doubtful for this item but the situation is really unstable. Many packer can't get a raw material for produce because of many factors such as weather. Anyway I still have very less information about this regrads thus I will update to you about this once again.
 
TUNA
Just only one month left before FAD (Fish Aggregating Devices) ban period. This year the period of it will more than previous year around one month that mean 4 months (1st July - 31st Oct) will be banned for FAD.
As a result, the price will increase from now (USD 1,830/ mt for Skipjack) to be USD 2,000/mt is not impossible even today we can catching around 37mt per day per boat in Indian ocean and 20mt per day per boat from Taiwanese and Korean boat. Please do not ignore this important point.
For Yellow fin, the price surely above USD 2,700/ mt in this time and also for Albacore is around USD 3,500/ mt.
In addition, the increasing for vegetabel oil, tinplate, and also demand of canned tuna from Japan after Tsunami and after shock can be considered as main factors which affect to market price as well. Therefore the possibility to see the increasing of market price is not too far in next coming June.
 
RICE
It's quite difficult to predict sharply because there are many factors concerning on its level. Only the short term trend would be speculated depend on each particular kind of rice. The prediction on price going down this week as you heard may be only some kind of rice such as "Thai Hom Mali Rice 100% with a little bit decrease but also speculated to rebound in soon. In case of broken rice, the price is in upward trend because of the shortage of raw material in the market. In addition, the glutinous rice also is increasing trend on price.
Price trend in short term, within a week, is likely to maintain on this level but the only factor which is being watched carefully concern on currency value movement. The exchange rate will also affect on export price because it has been moving on strengthening trend.
Please be ensured that our price always reflected on market situation but you can trust on our quality and reliability.
 
TINPLATE SITUATION
After this month (May), the tinplate price in Thailand will increase around 12-15% because Thai government will no longer absorb for manufacturer anymore. Actually the price of tinplate is gradually increasing since last year. Moreover, Tsunami and after shock in Japan is really affect to its price especially in Thailand because we are mainly import the tinplate from Japan. For more information about this situation, you can study more in these links below

 

Storm hits Philippines' coconut area, kills 10 people

Tuesday, 10 May 2011 10:49   http://en.www.info.vn/science-and-education/more-science/25483.html

A tropical storm slammed into the northeast mountain region on the Philippines' main island on Monday, killing at least 10 people and plunging some areas into darkness, disaster officials said.

Storm Aere, the country's second tropical storm this year but the first to cause death and damage, wdumped rain in the coconut-producing central Bicol region, weakened after making landfall, packing centre winds of 75 kph (46 mph) and gustiness of up to 90 kph. Two people were missing.

About 110,000 people in the coconut-producing Bicol and southern Tagalog regions had been affected as winds uprooted trees and toppled power lines, cutting electricity and phone services in wide areas.

Source: Reuters  http://en.www.info.vn/science-and-education/more-science/25483.html

 

 

3) KochiIndia, 10 May 2011:

Exports to Sri Lanka, which were in vogue couple of months ago, have ceased, but it would seem that a fresh round of exports have commenced to countries like Bangladesh, Pakistan and the UAE, Mr Prakash B. Rao, Member of the Cochin Oil Merchants Association, said. These were countries which used to traditionally source their coconut requirements from Sri Lanka, but the crop failure in that country has forced them to look elsewhere.

As the price of coconut and coconut oil has not been arrested despite the onset of the peak production season in Tamil Nadu, some traders expressed apprehension whether the crop was as good as it was expected to be. Others pointed to poorer crops reported by some of the major producing countries like the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia as the prime reason for the current price spiral. As Sri Lanka has banned exports, the Coconut Development Board sources expected coconut exports from the country to increase by 30 per cent in 2011-12 over last year.

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/commodities/article2006737.ece   

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/todays-paper/tp-agri-biz-and-commodity/article2007385.ece?css=print

 

09-May 2011:  Rice exporters near second-quarter target

- Rice exporters would have to find new contracts worth just 400,000 tonnes to meet the second quarter's export target of 2 million tonnes, said the Viet Nam Food Association (VFA).

Chairman of the association Truong Thanh Phong said that despite the good start to the year, exporters should continue to proactively look for new customers in preparation for the third quarter and the summer-autumn crop.
"If demand is low in the third quarter, the VFA will buy 1 million tonnes of rice to stockpile during that period, in order to steady the price and support farmers," Phong said, adding that the Government had also instructed the association to stockpile 1 million tonnes to coincide with the winter-spring crop in the first quarter.
According to the VFA, the Philippines, Viet Nam's largest rice importer, would reduce the amount of rice it imports from Viet Nam by around 200,000 tonnes this year. The country usually imports roughly 1.5-1.8 million tonnes of Vietnamese rice.
The association was also concerned that exports to the Middle East, Africa and the United Arab Emirates, that account for more than 30 per cent of total exports, would suffer due to political uncertainty in the region.
However, the association expected demand from other markets including Indonesia and Bangladesh would offset those losses. In the first quarter alone, the country signed export contracts worth a total of more than 1 million tonnes with Indonesia, the Philippines, Bangladesh and Cuba.
Phong said that thanks to rising demand, the rice price in the domestic market was currently high at VND7,600-7,800 per kilo, up VND500-600 over last week, though the country was in the harvesting season.
In the first quarter, Viet Nam exported more than 1.8 million tonnes of rice worth US$884 million, up 42 per cent and 46 per cent in volume and value compared with the same period last year

Source: VNS

 

Coconut output in SL falls 42% yoy in Jan-Feb 2011

by cse. alpha on Tue Apr 26, 2011 12:56 pm http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t3011-coconut-output-in-sl-falls-42-yoy-in-jan-feb-2011#20143

Coconut production in Sri Lanka has fallen 42% yoy to 239 million nuts during Jan-Feb 2011.
Source - Central Bank of Sri Lanka Weekly Econ Indicators 21/4/2011


 
20 April 2011
 
PINEAPPLE : Regarding the pineapple situation, pls see the association's formal letter. One more information which we would like to let you be aware is that even with some rain coming, the fruits price seemed to remain high. We believed that this may caused by the uneven supply demand of the packers, which probably derived from the world over demand. Other information which we would like to add is that the tinplate price would increase approx $250-$300/MT on the 1st of July, and this would be certain due to Japan had already increased their Tinplate since March. Japan would also need their steel manufacturer to focus on their construction recovery so there is also the possibility of more demand and less supply. We would need to watch closely for the shortage of Tinplate in Thailand too.

SWEET CORN : Regarding for sweet corn news, seem demand very huge because of EU, CANADA, and US supply reduce 20-30% from total, then all demand move to South East Asia, especially come to Thailand but unfortunately we also produce lower than expectation because of weather problems, and will facing same problem of increasing price same as pineapple by July 2011 therefore shortage of tinplate.

TUNA : Regarding Tuna fish, We recommend don't buy now until situation clear again, because after raw materail step back USD50.00/MT in early of April, but now keep increasing USD100/MT in every week, and moment price about USD1700.00-1750.00/MT, even such this price the supply still very low, expect to hit almost USD2000.00/Mt by early of August, then for point of view we recommend all buyer stop buying in huge volume and let's see how it improve in next few months.

RICE : Regarding for Thai Rice, now the season of harvest and price keep stable and crop will end ny end of May 2011, after that price will keep increasing for sure, therefore this year we can plantation 2 times only (from 3 times) because of not enough of water supply during summer season.

EXCHANGE RATE : http://www.bot.or.th/English/Pages/BOTDefault.aspx

 
1 April 2011
 
TUNA
About 2 weeks there is no catching at all on Japanese boats.  All the boats are at the port.  Average catching for US, Taiwanese and Korea is moderate low at 20 MT per day per boat,

Indian Ocean area is even going lower than last week.  10 MT per day per boat this week is half of last week catching volume. And lading cost in Thailand about USD1,600.00-USD1,640.00/MT

Yellowfin mixed in both Western Pacific and Indian Ocean are still at the low level of 5% and 10%, respectively.  Supply of yellowfin is still short and getting worse.  USD 2500++ is the possible price level but not quarantee on the quantity supply.

Albacore price is climbing up the ladder. We said USD 2850++last week.  Now, the price level is above USD 2900 per MT.  

Sad news for Tongol, there is not much improvement at all on the supply.  Thai catching is a little bit improved but considered as "Poor" while it should be the season for Tongol now.  Price is still firmed at USD1800-USD1850/MT up but no quantity. If any news update will keep sending update.
 
PINEAPPLE
Now the season of harvest starting with high price of raw materail at THB7.50-THB7.60/KG, and this summer crop will continue production until mid of May 2011 and after that crop will stolw down and finally end by mid of June 2011. And expect price of raw materaill will not see lower than THB7.00/KG because we have only short time of production for this summer crop. And will not hard to see price about THB8.00/KG when crop slow down.
 
Expectation for next winter crop stating by early of September 2011, that's mean we will lost time of production about 2 and half months during shut down, mean the price of finished product will keep going up dueing June - August 2011, We are high recommend to all buyer make decision to keep purchase the quantity not over by end of April 2011,  If any news update will keep sending update.
 
SWEET CORN
Due to climate changing too much right now, some week have 4 seasons such heavy storm, cold weather from high pressure in north of Thailand, La Ninna Effect from Indian Ocean (make a lot of flooding with several part of Thailand, and very dry weather in some part, it's make a lot of trouble for annual crops for sweet corn,
 
Together with right now have a huge demand for package food from Japan market then have an effective a lot with the raw materail, price keep stable about THB5.10-THB5.30/KG or even higher, therefore the production plat in Japan stop processing canned sweet corn (raw materail from USA) because food safty in Japan still facing crisis from electric power plant, moreover the supply from EU and Canada have some shortage, then demand move back to Asia especially from THAILAND, If any news update will keep sending update. 
 
RICE
By early of April will stating to harvest for main crop and now price for paddy (white rice) price about THB8,400/MT, seem price not improved at all because of very low demand, on another hands the cost of production not cheap as customer thinking, and price per MT from real production about THB10,000 something, and the market price guarantee by government about THB11,000/MT, then this is a big issue for the government will come to involve otherwise the farmer protest will keep continue if no any solution, anyway any news update will keep you post.
 
News and reference, please visit http://www.thairiceexporters.or.th/default.htm
 
CLIMATE CHANGE & TIN PLATE SUPPLY & FUEL COST
This topic also one of main factor have a big effect for costing of production, 95% of tin plate in Thailand, we do import from Japan, after Earthquake in Japan the factory have to re-construction about 3-6 months, and annouce to delay supply, mean the stock in Thailand have enough until June 2011 only, And have some news that THAI TIN PLATE company will announce to increasing price about 8-12% (but when finalize will send news update again) mean will effective with finished product for sure. If any news update will keep sending update. 
 
Climate changing, this issue is never less of effective with agriculture industry, as above mention during March the world cliate keep changing a lot, such Earthquake in New Sealand, Japan, Burmar, cold weather during summer time in Vietnam, Thailand, La Nina effect from Indian Oceam (Now haveing a lot of big rain in different part of Asia and finaly flooding again, or even some part of Thailand have no water at all, WHAT's HAPPEN ? everyone knew that then no need to explain more.
 
The fuel cost, due to now have a busy political mosty in whole Gulf region, mean the reserve oil in world market keep increasing, beanch market in Singapore, Dubai, Texas, New York and London keep swing up from February 2011 until now and seem no chance to get improvment. Come to see in Thailand we don't produce crude oil ourself, we do import 100% now benzin 91 price about USD1.15/liter and diesel price about USD1.00/liter (government subsidy), and by end of April 2011, Thailand goverment announcement already will let all type of oil follow the world market, that mean cost of every production cost, transportation cost and other costs will increasing the same for sure, anyway any news update will keep you post.
 

Coconut production in 2010 marks the lowest in 15 years

Mar 17th, 2011 10:16 AM   http://www.news360.lk/other/coconut-production-in-2010-marks-the-lowest-in-15-years

Coconut production in 2010 marks the lowest in 15 years  Sri Lanka�s coconut production during the year 2010 has fallen down by 536 million nuts year on year to stand at 2317 million nuts, marking the lowest annual production recorded in nearly 15 years. This is a shortfall of 18.8% when compared with the 2009 production of 2853 million nuts. Dr. Jayantha Gunathilaka, the Chief Agronomics of the Coconut Research Institution attributes multiple of reasons for the drop in the production.He says among them ranks �changing climatic conditions�, �lack of adequate fertilizer�, �using of coconut lands for other activities� etc.According to him, on average the sector should produce 2700 million nuts per year. Owing to the production shortfall in 2010, the coconut prices even reached to Rs. 60 a nut in the local market.

In Sri Lanka 3 sectors are competing to buy coconuts. Among them are nuts purchased for culinary work, desiccated coconut production and also for producing cooking oil.

Sri Lanka�s highest nut production has been recorded in the year 2004, which saw the production of 3000 million nuts.

 

Rice demand likely to raise price

U.S. farmers are planting the fewest acres with rice since 1989 just as global demand surpasses production for the first time in four years, driving prices as much as 12 percent higher this year. Plantings in the United States, the third-biggest shipper, may drop 25 percent this year because growers can earn more from corn and soybeans, The Thailand export price, Asia�s benchmark, may climb to $600 a metric ton by December from $534 on Jan. 26, a gain of 12 percent, according to a survey of traders, exporters and analysts.

Drought, pests seriously lower country's coconut production

By The Nation  Published on February 4, 2011

Thailand is set to lose its ranking as the world's second largest coconut exporter and become a net importer as drought has damaged growing areas.

For more than four years, Prachuap Khiri Khan, the country's most important area for coconut cultivation, has been hit by drought. The province now has only about 400,000 rai (64,000 hectares) of productive plantation area out of a potential 2.5 million rai.

In addition to the land, drought has directly affected the trees and fruits themselves, making them vulnerable to insects that damage the quality of the product. In the worst case, coconut palms in Thap Sakae district have died, their green fronds turning brown. Production dropped drastically to about 10 per cent of normal. from 1,000 to 100 fruits for 10 rais plantation.

The farmers said coconuts could grow anywhere in the country with normal rainfall. However, the province has faced such severe drought that even irrigation systems have had insufficient water for the past four years.  The result is a shortage of coconuts, prompting prices to skyrocket to Bt20-30 per fruit. This also directly affects coconut milk, whose price has also jumped in line with the raw material. Ampol Food Processing said the supply of coconuts for its plant producing coconut milk had dropped sharply from 150 tonnes to 60-70 tonnes per day. "Our production cannot serve market demand right now." 

Rice Market Monitor, January 2011, Volume XIV - Issue No. 1 

Forecast for world rice trade in calendar 2011 by nearly 900 000 tonnes to 31.4 million tonnes, only slightly below the estimate for 2010. Compared to 2010, improved supplies are anticipated to help countries in Asia and in Latin America and the Caribbean to cut purchases, while, in Europe and Africa, they may buy more. As for exports, Thailand is foreseen to step up deliveries substantially next year, compensating, together with Cambodia, China (Mainland) and Myanmar, for an expected sharp reduction in shipments from Pakistan and Viet Nam. Improved production prospects for 2010 are behind a higher forecast for global rice consumption in 2011, now assessed in the order of 461 million tonnes, or 3 percent above 2010. Much of the increase is likely to be in rice destined to food, with per caput consumption averaging close to 57 kilos in 2011, half a kilo more than in 2010. This increase largely reflects rising demand in the fast growing economies, which has also contributed to fuelling domestic price rises.

 

Dramatic developments for coconuts, and with that for coconut milk prices 

He said recently several outlets reported a cooking oil shortage but that had been settled.

 

 

23 Dec 2010 COLOMBO (Commodity Online): In the backdrop of spiraling coconut prices in SriLanka, government has been forced to take hard measures to control the price rise as it considered a dietary staple on the island. The government has now decided to import coconuts from India and Malaysia to end the shortages and bring down prices.
Agencies reported that in an effort to curb a coconut black market, the Sri Lankan government last week set a ceiling retail price of 30 rupees (27 US cents) per coconut in state-owned stores. But stocks quickly sold out and then reappeared at more than double the price on the black market.
The prices of coconuts were Rs 55-60 two weeks ago and now it has come down to between Rs 30 and 32.
With Christmas later in the week, the festive spirit of citizens has taken a hit because of the shortage.
Earlier this week, the Government banned the felling of coconut trees without permission from the Coconut Cultivation board with immediate effect.
Stores facilities which have been setup at Vauxhall Street, Colombo can store one million coconuts which are collected from around the country.
These stocks are collected by Government lorries, Army and private vehicles and distributed through the cooperative network, the Minister said. The Government has implemented a program to control soaring coconut prices during last few weeks, he said.
The Government has launched several programs to increase coconut production. The Government has banned the felling of coconut trees under the provision of the Coconut Development Act.

Accordingly, prior permission from the Regional Manager of the Coconut Cultivation Board of the relevant area should be obtained to cut down a coconut tree.
Coconut Development and Janatha Estate Development Minister Jagath Pushpakumara said the decision was taken to protect coconut cultivation and thereby keep a check on the price.
Sri Lankas annual coconut production is 2.7 billion nuts, and the ministry expects to increase this to 3.5 billion, Pushpakumara said.
Coconuts have traditionally been a key Sri Lankan export, after tea and rubber. But many say that the main reason for the coconut shortage is that large chunks of coconut plantations have been sold to build housing projects.
The fruit is widely used to make curries and the island specialty of `sambol�, a type of dry chutney.
Sri Lanka's Central Bank said coconut production fell 4.4 percent in the third quarter of this year after falling 19.3 percent in the corresponding period last year.
Not only coconut, the Lankan government has also decided to import chicken and eggs to meet the demands of the festive season.
Reports also said that Sri Lanka soon plans to start importing camels and ostrich to meet the demand for rising milk and egg consumption.

Sri Lanka takes on nationwide coconut crisis

By Charles Haviland

The Sri Lankan government has stepped in to try to stem a severe shortage of a national staple - coconuts.

The felling of palm trees has been banned without the special permission of the Coconut Cultivation Board.

The government has also begun importing coconuts from India and Malaysia, and attempted to impose price controls.

The coconut development minister said the shortage was a "burning issue". The hard-shelled fruit is an intrinsic part of Sri Lankan culture and cuisine.

Coconuts have also traditionally been exported as well.

Black market

Shoppers at a food market in a suburb of Sri Lanka's capital, Colombo, told the BBC they were not happy about the situation.

Periapperummal Dalton said the price of a coconut had doubled in two months to as much as 60 rupees ($0.54).

Analysts say the shortage has arisen because coconut plantations have been unscrupulously converted for housing development.

Production has also been affected by the relatively high cost of fertiliser.

The government last week tried to cap the price of coconuts at 30 rupees and rationed their sale in official outlets.

But supplies ran out and the coconuts appeared at higher prices on the black market.

Two vendors at the Colombo coconut market said that with imports about to enter the Indian Ocean island, prices were already beginning to fall.

President Mahinda Rajapaksa's 2010 election manifesto this year declared that Sri Lanka was importing far too much food.

His government is currently engaged in a campaign to boost domestic food production.

But now coconuts, along with poultry, are being imported as seasonal demand rises.

Coconut milk lends a distinctive flavour to Sri Lankan curries of fish, meat and vegetables.

Coconuts are also used to make chutneys, pickles known as sambols and cooking oil.

 

Coconut production in free-fall  (Thailand) Drought and pests mean more imports

15 Dec.2010  http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/economics/211325/coconut-production-in-free-fall 

Falling coconut output in pest-ravaged provinces has adversely affected Thailand's coconut milk and food industry. Local food processors are sourcing more coconuts from abroad, mainly Indonesia and Vietnam, but the solution is only short-term and shortages will continue unless more effective ways are found to deal with pests.

Ampol Food Processing Co, Thailand's leading producer of coconut-based food and milk under the Chaokoh brand, is now forced to import 200,000 coconuts a day from Indonesia, but that volume still falls short of demand, said Kriengsak Theppadungporn, the managing director.

The company and its parent firm the Theppadungporn Group are local market leaders in coconut milk and coconut-based foods. Together they use more than 500,000 coconuts a day to produce Chaokoh coconut milk and Roi Thai brand curry.

Drought and destructive pests, notably beetle infestations, have damaged coconuts fields for many years, especially in Prachuap Khiri Khan's Thap Sakae district, a major production area.

"Unfortunately, the area has suffered a dry spell for five or six months now despite most of the southern provinces being inundated in recent months," said Mr Kriengsak.

"We've had to bring in large volumes of coconuts from Indonesia recently, but even then it is unlikely to meet market demand."

The Agriculture Ministry reported that pest outbreaks, especially hispine beetles, which feed on the developing leaves of the coconut palm, are to blame for the steady decline in local coconut production in recent years. It estimates drought and destructive pests have devastated more than 400,000 rai of coconut sites nationwide, shrinking plantation areas by 3.36% to 1.44 million rai this year for output of 1.3 million tonnes, down by 6% year-on-year. Falling production has tripled the price of coconuts to 20 baht a piece, up from 6-7 baht last year. The prices of shredded coconut, which is crushed to make coconut milk, has climbed to 58-68 baht a kilogramme this week, from 30 baht a year ago.

Although shredded coconut is expensive, demand remains strong as it is a key ingredient in several Thai desserts and dishes, especially curries.

"It's also becoming difficult to find fresh coconut milk, so customers have turned to instant instead, and that has even driven sales of Chaokoh," said Mr Kriengsak.

"Despite the import volume being so large, we can supply only 100 tonnes of coconut milk per day to the market, far less than normal demand of 150 tonnes."

Ampol Food believes the reduced supply will cause it to miss this year's sales target of 1.9 billion baht. It now expects sales of only 1.6 billion baht but hopes that will rise to 2.2 billion baht once the supply eventually returns to normal.

Mr Kriengsak said the company is working with the ministry and Kasetsart University to use parasitic wasps to attack hispine beetles. The method is recommended by the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation as an effective biological way to eliminate pest outbreaks and help save the coconut industry in many countries.

As well, there is also campaign to encourage growers to replace old coconut trees, mostly older than 30 years, with new varieties of drought- and pest-resistant seedlings.

 

http://www.sundayobserver.lk/2010/12/05/new33.asp

5 Dec 2010:  Lean season, weather lead to coconut price hike

The rise in the price of coconuts is due to the lean season and the drought last year, said Chairman, Coconut Cultivation Board (CCB), Sarath Keerthiratne.

He said there is a drastic reduction in the harvest this time unlike in other years due to adverse weather conditions.

The price of coconuts has risen, making most consumers unable to afford it. The price of a coconut hovers around Rs. 45 while many retailers do not have sufficient stocks.

Tea, rubber and coconut are Sri Lanka's main export crops.

"The prices will be high during the next two months and will gradually decline by the end of February. We expect a harvest of around 2,600 million nuts this year", Keerthiratne said.

Sri Lanka's annual coconut production is around 2,800 million nuts while the country requires around 3,700 million nuts. "The CCB will provide coconuts to Sathosa and Cooperative Societies at Rs.26 a nut", Keerthiratne said.

Coconut production drops by around 50 percent during the lean period from September to March and increases during the rest of the year.

Chairman, Coconut Development Authority, Sugath Hadunge said changes in consumer patterns and the rise in demand for coconut oil have resulted in the increase in coconut prices.

Coconut oil is a substitute for the costly palm oil.

"The coconut palm disease in the South has no major impact on the price escalation", Handunge said.

The Ministry of Plantations has directed institutions under its purview to increase coconut cultivation and promote it as a garden crop. (LF)